UFC 178 Media Roundtable
by Ben Heather @benheather
With a lot of interesting match ups and stories to unfold this weekend we asked some of our friends from other MMA sites to weigh in on a few key topics going in to the event.
Would a Cariaso victory on Saturday night be the biggest upset in a UFC title fight of all time?
Sean Sheehan (Severe MMA): Simply put, to knowledgeable MMA people, yes it would. Matt Serra beating Georges St-Pierre is to this day seen still as the biggest upset in MMA history with Weidman/Silva and Barao/Dillashaw also on the radar. The difference between those three and Chris Cariaso, though, is huge. Serra was expected to grapple with GSP but unleashed huge power, the same can be said for Dillashaw with plethora of technique added while Weidman is an extreme talent who reached his potential right on queue. With all due respect, Chris Cariaso isn't as talented as any of those three. He is a fine, well rounded mixed martial artist with some solid defence but is not in the league of Demetrious Johnson.
Jade Morris (Bay TV): It would be a surprise for sure... Mighty Mouse is a great champion and has been unstoppable... but you never know, people love an underdog.
Tony Quant (Whoa TV): Yes for sure it would stake a claim for being one of the biggest upsets in a title fight. Dillashaw and Weidman have been the biggest upsets of recent times in my eyes given how dominant Silva and Barao had been as Champs. So yeah if Cariaso beats Johnson it will be right up there given how dominant Johnson has been in the UFC since winning the gold. I personally don’t see it happening but stranger things have happened (Serra/GSP) and he definitely stands a “punchers chance.” Every time Johnson fights people look at the ways his opponents can beat him and those chances get smaller and smaller as he continues to evolve and get better after every fight. So sorry Cariaso but I don’t see an upset coming in this one.
Dan Moore (MMA Torch): If Chris Cariaso does the unexpected and wins on Saturday night, without doubt, it would rank alongside the likes of Matt Serra (beat Georges St-Pierre at UFC 69), Chris Weidman (beat Anderson Silva at UFC 162) and, T.J. Dillashaw (beat Renan Barao at UFC 173). Serra’s win is still the greatest of all time in my eyes, because no one saw it coming. A Cariaso win would almost match it, but it wouldn’t be better. Demetrious Johnson is a terrific talent, but no matter how good he is, he doesn’t have the status of a GSP or Silva. Fickle fight fans will forget all about a Cariaso win in years to come, but they won’t forget the Serra and Weidman wins.
Ben Heather (Kingdom MMA): In my opinion the biggest upset in a title fight was Chris Weidman beating Anderson Silva as he was known as the pound for pound best fighter in the world when it happened, where as when GSP lost to Matt Serra he wasn't the same dominant fighter he went on to become. Which gets me on to Saturday night, if Cariaso wins in my opinion it would become the greatest upset in a title fight ever. Mighty Mouse has shown since winning the title how much better he is than everyone else at 125lbs and cleared out the top contenders so far. So for a +900 underdog to come in and beat him would be incredible.
Does the Alvarez/ Cerrone winner on Saturday night become the next guy after Melendez to get a title shot at 155?
Dan Moore (MMA Torch): Name recognition will count for a great deal when the UFC selects their next title contender from a very stacked lightweight division. Eddie Alvarez and Donald Cerrone have recognition in abundance, and win or lose; they usually guarantee an exciting fight. In terms of other possible contenders, Khabib Nurmagomedov is out injured until 2015 and would need a warm-up fight first. Rafael dos Anjos is booked to fight Nate Diaz at UFC on FOX 13, which in itself is a solid clue he’s not next. That’s it, two viable names, so the door is wide open for either Cerrone or Alvarez to stake their claim on Saturday night.Ben Heather (Kingdom MMA): If Cerrone wins on Saturday night, I can't see him waiting until the new year to fight for the title so even if he is given the "number 1 contender" tag I think he would fight before Pettis vs Melendez even takes place.
If Alvarez wins this is where it gets interesting, I think the UFC would like to see Alvarez fight for a title soon and so he may be given the option to sit out for 6 months to get the shot. However, the UFC also have a chance here to show that being a Bellator champion doesn't mean much in the UFC and make him fight again against a big name, maybe Benson Henderson before he jumps up to Welterweight. If he wins he then certainly deserves that shot next in a division which is stacked.
Sean Sheehan (Severe MMA): There are many factors at play but, all things being equal, yes the winner will get the next title shot. As we saw with Gilbert Melendez, the UFC are ready to strike while the iron is hot with talents from other organisations. Should Alvarez beat Cerrone, with Khabib Nurmagomedov still on the sidelines through injury, there isn't really a step between there are the top. For Cerrone, it's a no-brainer. After beating a whole array of top talent in his last handful of fights a win over Eddie Alvarez would make him a certainty to fight for the title next. The biggest factor in all of these plans, though, is the health of the champion Anthony Pettis.
Tony Quant (Whoa TV): No I don’t think the winner of this one deserves the next shot after Melendez. I think Khabib deserves the shot the most in that division even ahead of Melendez and also Dos Anjos is right up there (but I see they matched him with Diaz next). For me Alvarez needs to beat Cerrone then one more in the top five (Bendo?) and likewise Cerrone needs two more wins before he is in the title picture. The UFC may give the shot to Alvarez given his profile and the fact that he was the former Bellator Champion but I think they will probably want two UFC wins under his belt before they do, which will also diminish the Bellator Title credentials at the same time.
Jade Morris (Bay TV): Cerrone being on an impressive 4 fight winning streak would definitely deserve a title shot if he pulls off a win but I think for Alvarez although he will be a force to be reckoned with in the division he needs a few more fights in the UFC first.
Who has more at stake on Saturday night between McGregor & Poirier?
Ben Heather (Kingdom MMA): This fight is a great fight and I have been going back and forth all week as to who i think wins. I am still undecided but can't wait to see it go down. As for who has more on the line its a close call. I would love to see a huge European show in the near future and a Conor win goes a long way to making that a reality. However, if Conor was to lose he is no longer this Irish phenom who is unbeatable and the next big thing in the UFC so that will seriously damage the next year to 18 months of his career.Poirier I feel though has more on the line, he has been called out by Conor for a long time and now has the chance to knock him out the title picture and try to stop him running his mouth. If he is unable to beat McGregor or even worse lose in round 1 like Conor is predicting this could seriously damage his future career.
The saving grace for both men is they are still both young and could recover from a lose however bad it is, it just may take a while before we see the loser fighting for a title.
Sean Sheehan (Severe MMA): Both men have plenty at stake on Saturday but, in all honesty, a loss shouldn't effect them in the long term. For McGregor, a loss would fuel the fire of his many, many detractors and slow his progression - but it wouldn't stop it. For Poirier it's probably straight back in after a loss against one of the losers of the upcoming Aldo/Mendes and Edgar/Swanson fights. We've seen guys lose and build their way back to title shots on numerous occasions. Johny Hendricks, Robbie Lawler, Joseph Benavidez, Lyoto Machida, Vitor Belfort the list goes on and on. Poirier and McGregor are hard-working, gifted and young enough to get straight back on the horse. A loss would hurt their title dreams but they certainly won't end them.
Dan Moore (MMA Torch): A loss for either guy isn’t the end of the world, even if it does set them back the best part of a year. Poirier has done it all before, is still only 25 years old and, not yet at his peak. A win or two in 2015 will put him straight back into contention. A loss will hurt McGregor more because his personality and popularity is built around winning fights and doing it with style. As soon as he fails to perform inside the Octagon, fans will no longer buy into the whole indestructible superstar persona he portrays so effectively. He can still bounce back from a loss but the UFC won’t be pushing his hype train quite as frantically.
Jade Morris (Bay TV): McGregor is the next Chael Sonnen, a loss would not damage his career. Poirier however has more at stake not only for future title hopes but he wants to make a point that McGregor has been too hyped up and he finds it insulting to the other top contender featherweights on the already stacked division.
Tony Quant (Whoa TV): I think McGregor has more at stake in this fight than Poirier does. But I think McGregor likes it that way and thrives from the pressure, just like he did against Brandao. And there is absolutely nothing wrong with losing to Poirier. I think McGregor will get the win but it won’t be as easy as he is envisaging it to be. A loss for McGregor will knock him off his title plans but a win will definitely put him in the mix. Whereas a win for Poirier will probably leave him with a couple more fights before he gets a crack at the gold. McGregor has the whole of Ireland on his shoulders and in making such a visage about himself he really needs to deliver in these fights and therefore I really think he has more at stake in this one. But I expect him to come good and prove his worth against one of the best Featherweights in the world.
Now you have heard what we all think, let us know your thoughts below.
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