Happy New year folks, 2015 is now upon us and the action is back with a bang as the eagerly awaited grudge match Between Light Heavyweight Kingpin Jon Jones and rival Daniel Cormier takes place in Las Vegas for UFC 182. As always I'm here to hopefully pop some bets your way and see if you can make some nice money early in the new year. However, as always this is just my opinion so go with your gut feelings and put different fighters in to get the best out of your bet.
Bet 1 Stake £5 Returns £57
Omari Akhmedov 4/6
Shawn Jordan 4/9
Danny Castillo 4/9
Brad Tavares 6/5
Donald Cerrone 1/2
Looking at it this parlay has a great chance to come in, although there are a few tight match ups to get through to win it. First up we have Omari Akhmedov in what I think is a very big mismatch and I am surprised the odds for this fight are so close. Akhmedov returning to the Octagon after getting thoroughly dominated by Icelandic prospect Gunnar Nelson last March has all the tools to make this a fairly easy night for himself in a lot of aspects. The Dagastani fighter has the clear advantage, hits harder, is the better grappler and for me is the all around better fighter with the only possibility of a loss coming if Nilsson catches him in a submission but I am very confident Akhmedov brings this one home.
Next up we have the Heavyweights as UFC veteran Shawn Jordan takes on the 8-1 UFC newcomer Jared Cannonier in what is a bit of a closer match up than the odds suggest, as I think Jordan is so up and down its hard to place money on him. But on this occasion I am placing money on him as I think he is the better all around athlete with better movement and a lot more power than the newcomer. However, that being said Cannonier has strong ground and pound and could finish from there but Jordan being a former Louisiana state football player as a fullback he will be hard to take down so I believe going with Jordan is the smart play here.
Moving on to recently crowned Brazilian Ju Jitsu Black belt and Team Alpha Male stalwart Danny Castillo as he takes on Paul Felder in a lightweight match up. From the get go this is a clear match up of different styles, Felder being the Striker with Castillo being the grappler with some heavy hands. From what I have seen on Felder he is very prone to getting taken down and this will not be good in this match up but with that being said he does scramble to his feet well. However, against Castillo I don't see him stuffing all the takedowns and eventually he will be put on his back where Castillo will destroy him down there and also keep an eye on Castillo via sub as this could be worth a small punt.
On to the Main Card next where Middleweight's Nate Marquardt and Brad Tavares square off in another close match up where I think the line is correct but I am favouring the underdog in this one as Tavares is tough to finish, can take a shot and give some back. I see him doing this late on in the fight after Nate's suspect gas tank fades and the younger Tavares takes over and possibly even secures a late finish but I can see why people may choose Nate instead.
The final part of the parlay is the co-main event where fan favourite Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone takes on promising prospect Myles Jury. I find this match up the hardest to choose between as I think Jury is a fighter who could go all the way but in order to move forward he will need to take out the dangerous Cerrone. If we start this fight off from a striking stand point Cerrone has the big advantage as he has been a brutal Kickboxing artist for many years and showed that in his last fight against Eddie Alvarez. He is also one of the very best when it goes to the ground and is as dangerous down there with Jury, he is the modern day MMA Fighter and is good everywhere. If Myles wants to win this fight he is going to have to mix it up fight at range, check the leg kicks while keeping his defence up top tight and mix it in with attacks that turn to takedowns, if he does this he will win but I just think the step up is too soon and will side with Cowboy here.
Bet 2 Stake £10 Returns £46
Cody Garbrandt 15/8
Jon Jones 8/13
This is a double I am all over, you will never get a better line on the best fighter in MMA so now is the time to jump on it and I have paired him up with a extremely talented up and coming fighter. Starting off with Jon Jones, for me this is by far his toughest challenge in the UFC and as a huge fan of his this has been the match up I have been dreading. However, I really do think we will see the best Jones ever and with his 12 inch reach advantage over Cormier will keep him on the outside and negate Cormier's attempts at a takedown. Do I think Cormier will take Jones down... yes I do but I feel Jones will get back to his feet and punish him from there and I can see a finish for Jones late on in rounds 4 or 5 but it really is a great fight and something I have been looking forward to for months.
The second part of my double features yet another prospect coming out from Team Alpha Male as Cody "No Love" Garbrandt makes his UFC debut against former TUF competitor Marcus Brimage . Ok I will be honest, I am a little bit of a fan boy when it comes to Garbrandt I have been following his MMA career for over two years and believe this kid can go far in the talented 135lb Bantamweight division. He comes from a wrestling background being a state champion in his home in Ohio but along with great clinch work has a huge bomb of a right hand, strong leg kicks, the kid has it all. I really fancy him to pull off the upset here but that being said this fight is a massive step up in competition, so only put money on him if you are confident.
Bet 3 The Outside bet
Jon Jones via Sub 9/1
Donald Cerrone via Dec 8/5
Kyoji Horiguchi to win in under 2.5 rds 5/6
Now this is a HUGE long shot but these are the bets I love to put on if you have a few quid lying about and at odds of 47/1 if it comes in you're in the money!
To finish up here are some prop bets that may take your fancy
Donald Cerrone via KO/TKO 4/1
Evan Dunham to win Under 2.5 rds 6/4
Danny Castillo via Sub
Good luck and remember to only bet what you are able and willing to lose, these bets are only my opinion and are not guaranteed to win.
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