After a much needed three week break the UFC returns and Brazil's very own Featherweight champion Jose Aldo will attempt to defend his title for a seventh time in a rematch against the number one contender and Team Alpha Male standout Chad "Money" Mendes. So I'm back to give you a bit of guidance and some bets which I am confident will come in.
Note, these tips are for guidance only. Please bet sensibly and only if you can afford to lose - I will not be held responsible, if you lose you house, wife, dignity or self respect.
Bet 1
A £5 stake will pay back approximately £56
Gilbert Burns 2/7
Fabricio Camoes 4/5
Andre Fili 5/6
Diego Ferreira 8/15
Fabio Maldonado 8/11
This parlay has a particularly Brazilian theme to it, apart from Andre Fili and it pays a nice profit too. First up is a fighter I have huge hopes for in the future and that is Gilbert Burns. A former world champion in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu who's striking skills are coming up to par with his ground skills. A drop down to his natural weight class will see dividends here as he should beat UFC debutant and former RFA Lightweight champion Christos Giagos, but keep your eyes on Giagos in the future as he will beat top competition within his stint in the UFC.
Up next we have Fabricio Camoes who returns to fight in his native homeland for the first time in over eight years and may appreciate the drop down in competition. The third degree BJJ black belt under Royler Gracie has faced stiff opposition in his four previous fights within the organisation with losses to Jim Miller and Melvin Guillard. However, he now faces Tony Martin who to me is not UFC quality at all and is coming of two losses himself and a loss here should see him receive the pink slip. In Martin's last fight he gassed badly against Beneil Dariush and I think he will get caught in a submission inside two rounds.
Rolling into Rio is Team Alpha Male's Andre Fili who is looking to get back in the win column as he faces Felipe Arantes in a featherweight clash. Fili who has a very aggressive striking style matched with a ever improving ground game looks to take the fight to Arantes in a match up I think could be a sleeper for fight of the night. Both guys love to excite the crowd and come forward but when this happens I expect Fili to get the better shots off because of his better movement and hurt Arantes in the process. This will be a back and forth affair but in the end I like Fili by decision.
In this next match up we have two fighters who have been very active this year as Diego Ferriera looks to keep his unbeaten record against Beneil Dariush. This will be Ferriera's third fight in four months and in his previous two fights he has looked impeccable stopping his foes by TKO and Submission. Dariush is coming off a nice finish but it was only after Tony Martin gassed badly he got the stoppage. In a match up of two BJJ black belts I think Ferriera is the better grappler and when he takes the fight to the ground he will finish the fight from there. Also keep in mind that Dariush has been knocked out with one punch before and I believe Ferriera has the potential to do this again but I think he will win by submission here.
Last up is light heavyweight slugger Fabio Maldonado as he faces Dutchmen Hans Stringer in a fight which I think will finish in a stoppage. Maldonado will be returning to his natural weight class after an unsuccessful journey to the big hitting Heavyweight division to face Stipe Miocic, which ended in a quick knockout. However, in his real division Fabio is on a three fight win streak all of which have been via decision. Maldonado's Strengths lie within his technical boxing and ever dependable chin. His game plan will be to get Stringer against the cage and unload from there and I expect him to do this later on in the fight.
Bet 2
William Macario 15/8
Lucas Martins 5/4
Jose Aldo 2/5
This right here is a bet I really like and have already got money on myself. It has two great looking underdogs with a firm favourite in the Champion Jose Aldo.
William "Patolino" Macario returns to the octagon, against in my opinion 2014's most improved fighter in Neil Magny in a welterweight bout. Macario is coming off a dominant performance against Bobby Voelker in which he looked like the star he did on the TUF Brazil show. A fighter who plants his feet and throws with solid power but he has to get inside Magny's long reach if he wants to be successful. Magny is coming off four straight wins in 2014 and has shown improvements everywhere within his game. His August victory over Alex Garcia showed his vast improvements but I think this is a fight too much for him and Macario should get the decision victory.
In the Martins/Elkins match up if Martins can stop Elkins aggressive takedown attempts he will finish this fight late on in my opinion but you can never take an opponent like Elkins lightly who works for everything. However, I see a Martins finish here. In the main event I like Jose Aldo even though I think his days are numbered as champion. I don't see the improvements in Mendes game to take the belt away from him and Aldo can finish him at any time but in my opinion he more likely takes a decisive decision here.
Some nice little bets to keep an eye on are:
Diego Ferriera via Sub 4/1
Phil Davies via Points 10/3
Yan Cabral via KO 11/2
So that was a few bets I like, I wish you all the best with any bets you put on. Good luck!
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