Kingdom MMA: UFC on FOX 7 Main Card Predictions
by Ben Heather @benheather
On Saturday night it will mark the 7th time that the UFC will be on FOX and this fight card has a real UFC vs Strikeforce feel to it all the way through. I really like how the UFC has put this card together and if the introudction most of the Strikeforce fighters have put on up until now is anything to go by, we will be in for a treat on Saturday night.
Below you will find the predictions from all the guys at Kingdom MMA for the main card.
Benson Henderson (18-2) #1 LW vs. Gilbert Melendez (21-2) #2 LW
Scott: There are not many who can significantly challenge Ben Henderson for his UFC lightweight title with Jose Aldo and Anthony Pettis heading up this group. Unfortunately for Saturday's main event Gilbert Melendez is not in this group. Henderson is stronger than him everywhere and his skills are to the point where he is proving to be an innovator within the sport. Melendez was lucky to come away with the Strikeforce lightweight championship in a closely fought fight with Josh Thomson and Henderson is a huge step up in quality that I don't think he'll be able to handle.This fight will be very similar to Henderson's previous versus Melendez teammate Nate Diaz as we will see another superb display of technique and aggression from "Smooth" that will overwhelm the challenger. Henderson won't lose his tag as having on average the longest fights in the UFC, but who cares when he is such a joy to watch.
Prediction: Henderson by Unanimous Decision
John: This will be a close one to call, Henderson is the champion but to be honest he's never really impressed me that much. I still don’t think he beat Edgar either time. On the other hand Melendez was the Stikeforce champion and is coming in off a seven fight win streak, so he's defiantly got some momentum going. I think the fight will go to a decision and I see Melendes edging it.
Prediction: Melendez by Split Decision
Ben: I predict only one thing in this fight, a Henderson victory!! I don't think Henderson gets anywhere near the credit he is due. In his first fight with Edgar he clearly won the fight in my opinion and their shouldn't have been a rematch. The rematch was a lot closer but I still gave him the win. This guy has beat a who's who of lightweight contenders on the way to getting his shot and now as champ has beat Nate Diaz and Frankie Edgar twice.... who else can say they have done that. Nobody!!
I agree with Scott, I am not sure if he finishes him but I do know he will put on a show as he always does.
Prediction: Henderson by Unanimous Decision
Chris: Melendez is an excellent fighter, who can definitely cut it with top 5, top 10 guys in the world, but I'm not as enthusiastic about his chances in this fight as some of his supporters .
Both fighters have similar skillsets but I think Henderson has a wrestling advantage, handles offensive pressure better, and definitely has more kicks in his arsenal. I think this fight will be a little bit closer than the Diaz fight was, but I think Henderson takes this one quite easily.
Prediction: Henderson by Unanimous Decision
Frank Mir (16-6) #5 HW vs. Daniel Cormier (11-0) #3 HW
Scott: Daniel Cormier came out of almost nowhere to win the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix and announced himself to the world in a big fashion. So much so that he goes into his UFC debut as a heavy favourite against veteran Frank Mir. Cormier's striking has looked on point in his recent fights and I think he'll have the advantage there over Mir. The big question is whether Cormier will utilise his excellent wrestling game against the division's best submission artist. Cormier wasn't afraid to go there with Josh Barnett, but Mir is a different proposition. Cormier will dictate this fight, but there is always the chance of a flash of inspiration from Mir a la his brutal submission of Big Nog in December 2011.Prediction: Cormier by Unanimous Decision
John: I’m picking this out for fight of the night. Cormier comes in unbeaten and Mir comes in off a loss and will be desperate to get the win so with that I see this being a war. Both fighters have great stand up and are both comfortable on the ground so it will be hard for either fighter to get an advantage. I see this fight going back and forth going the distance with Cormier getting the decision.
Prediction: Cormier by Unanimous Decision
Ben: I think I must be the only person (as i was last week when i predicted that Kelvin would beat Uriah Hall) who thinks that Frank Mir has a decent chance. The odds for this fight baffle me... Yes Cormier has looked very good in his days in Strikeforce and has possibly the biggest hype train of any fighter making his debut in the UFC. But he has not fought anyone with BJJ like Mir.
I predict one of two things, either Mir tries to get Cormier down and in the process gets knocked out or the more likely happening in my opinion. Mir gets hold of one of Cormiers limbs and forces the submission victory. Welcome to the big show Cormier.
Prediction: Mir by Submission Round 2
Chris: I don't see how Cormier loses this one if I'm honest. Sure Frank Mir is an excellent opponent, and one of Cormiers toughest to date, but when you look at the 3 core skills in MMA - wrestling, striking, ju-jitsu, Cormier has beaten guys who are better than Mir in each facet: Striking: Silva and Poa, Wrestling: Barnett and Ju-jitsu: Jeff Monson. I like Cormier to keep this fight on the feet, using his speed advantage to win a Unanimous decision
Prediction: Cormier by Unanimous Decision
Nate Diaz (16-8) #5 LW vs. Josh Thomson (19-5)
Scott: These two bellicose fighters could well put on the night's best fight in what is sure to be a fast paced encounter. Both are holders of BJJ black belts and could cancel each other out in that department bringing things down to the striking and wrestling departments. Thomson likely has the better wrestling, but will he want to risk taking Diaz to the ground. Ben Henderson did, but he had to do a lot of work to escape submission attempts when he wanted to pour on some ground and pound. Diaz has the striking advantage here and I think this will be the most important aspect of the fight and Thomson could well play into Diaz's hands (no pun intended) here as he looks to go toe-to-toe with him.Prediction: Diaz by Unanimous Decision
John: This one's easier for me to pick, I think Diaz will bounce back from his loss to Benson Henderson and defeat Thomson and make another run for the title. Thomson has been a bit inconsistent over the last few years so I see Diaz winning this one.
Prediction: Diaz by Submission Round 2
Ben: Thomson pushed Melendez all the way in the fights they have had and so has a good reputation and rightfully so. However I feel in this fight, like in the main event it may be a rude awakening and a case of welcome to the UFC. I am predicting that Diaz picks his shots and keeps Thomson at range then when he see's the opportunity he goes for a submission.
Prediction: Diaz by Submission Round 3
Chris: Josh Thomson might be flying under the radar a little bit to the casual fan down to injury problems in the past, but he has beat some quality opponents - Gilbert Melendez, Pat Healy, Dauane Ludwig, Hermes Franca and stands a really good chance here.
Thomson goes into this bout with a clear cut wrestling advantage and if he can exercise a similar game to that of Rory MacDonald or Ben Henderson when they fought Diaz, its conceivable Thomson can win this fight. Sure, it wont be easy, Thomson will need to avoid stay on the outside where Diaz can pick him apart with his much better boxing. He also has to be careful not to fall into the guard of Diaz but if he can do that, I see Thomson walking away with the upset.
Prediction: Thomson by Unanimous Decision
Matt Brown (16-11) vs. Jordan Mein (27-8)
Scott: Matt Brown has come back from three consecutive defeats and an inevitable release to post a 5-1 record in his last 6 fights winning the last 4 in a row. The self proclaimed "technical-brawler" will find his toughest test to date on that run as he faces Jordan Mein who has fought 35 times professionally at only 23. Both will be ready for an absolute war and Brown's iron chin will be significantly checked by Mein who became the first man to finish Dan Miller in his last bout. Brown's achilles heel is his submission game as he has been finished 9 times by this method and Mein could capitalise on this shortcoming and continue to make a name for himself in the UFC.Prediction: Mein by Submission Round 2
John: I’m going Jordan Mein for this one, I don't see it being a long fight and don't think it will get out the first round. Mein steps in for an injured Dan Hardy, I think that would have been a lot better fight. However even with Mein stepping in and having less time to prepare for a tough opponent I think Mien will come in stronger and win in the first round.
Prediction: Mein by KO Round 1
Ben: Again for the second time on this card I am picking the underdog. I think Matt Brown has been on a roll and I dont see it stopping. The way he has finished Swick on Fox 5 impressed me so much and I predict he will do the same against Mein.
Mein did look very impressed and the big stage did not get to him when he finished Dan Miller only a few weeks ago but I think coming in on short notice and against Brown on the run he is on is a combinatin for failure.
Prediction: Brown by KO Round 2
Chris: Fair play to Matt Brown, from a 3 fight losing streak, and 1 fight away from being cut from the UFC, he goes on a run winning 4 of 5, and picking up some impressive KO's along the way. Unfortunately I don't see him being able to continue that run against up-and-coming Jordan Mein. I expect Mein to be able to control the fight from the outside with his crisper striking, and I can see Mein overpowering Brown when he does go inside or in the clinch.
Prediciton: Mein by KO Round 2
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